Homes have not reached their maximum real estate values, this is due to the gap that currently exists between the house-buying power and median sale prices, says Chief Economist Mark Fleming.
MB Daily News-Raleigh, NC:- The Real House Price Index (RHPI) The RHPI is an algorithm tool that measures the price changes of single-family properties throughout the U.S. adjusted for the impact of income and interest rate changes on consumer house-buying power over time at national, state, and metropolitan areas levels. Because the RHPI adjusts for house-buying power, it also serves as a measure of housing affordability.
Chief Economist Analysis: Real House Prices Increased 17.5 Percent Year Over Year
According to the Real House Price Index (RHPI), which measures housing affordability in the context of changes in consumer house-buying power, affordability in September declined to its lowest level since 2008. Two of the three components of consumer house-buying power swung toward declining affordability. Record nominal house price growth and rising mortgage rates outpaced the growth in household income,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “The 30-year, fixed mortgage rate, and the unadjusted house price index increased by 0.01 percentage points and 20.9 percent, respectively on a year-over-year basis. Even though household income increased 3.0 percent since September 2020 and boosted consumer house-buying power, the RHPI increased 17.5 percent compared with last September, the highest yearly growth rate since 2014.”
Affordability is Falling, But is Housing Overvalued?
“Annual nominal house price growth in September remained near record levels and affordability declined, but the housing market is not overvalued. Historically low mortgage rates and rising incomes have allowed home buyers to borrow more, giving them the ability to bid up house prices. If housing is appropriately valued, house-buying power should equal or outpace the median sale price of a home,” said Fleming. “In September, house-buying power was more than $170,000 above the median sale price nationally, indicating that the housing market may even be undervalued. Of course, real estate is local, but even at the market level, consumer house-buying power exceeds the median home price in most markets.
“In the chart, homebuyers in markets below the line have house-buying power that is greater than the median house price in their market – meaning houses are relatively more affordable in these markets and undervalued relative to house-buying power,” said Fleming. “Homebuyers in markets above the line have house-buying power that is less than the median house price in their market – indicating houses in these markets are relatively less affordable and overvalued relative to house-buying power.
“Only four of the 50 markets we track had a median sale price that exceeded house-buying power in September, and they’re all coastal cities in California. Yet, housing markets generally considered expensive, like Seattle, Washington, D.C., and Boston, are more affordable than many believe,” said Fleming. “The reason many other expensive markets are more affordable is due to high household incomes – the more you earn, the more you pay. High household incomes in combination with historically low mortgage rates fuel strong house-buying power, which in many markets remains above the median sale price of a home.”
Where Does the Housing Market Go from Here?
“The First American Data & Analytics preliminary nominal house price index indicates slowing annual house price growth in October, as declining affordability causes some potential buyers to pull back from the market and sellers to adjust their price expectations. Yet, as the housing market heads into the end of the year, the ongoing supply and demand imbalance will continue to put upward pressure on house price growth,” said Fleming. “It may be hard to believe but, once adjusted for consumer house-buying power, housing is undervalued in most markets and the gap between house-buying power and median sale prices indicates there remains room for continued house price growth.”