Honduras’ Defining Election: Moncada vs Nasralla and the Battle for the Nation’s Economic Future
Moncada vs Nasralla: The Economic and Political Future of Honduras 2026
By Javier Zelaya | One West Realty | Regional Analysis
Overview
Honduras’ 2025–2026 presidential elections mark a decisive turning point for the nation’s economy. Rixi Moncada advocates for a social model with stronger state intervention, while Salvador Nasralla promotes an open-market economy focused on transparency and public–private partnerships (PPP).
Current Economic Landscape (2025)
Key Indicators
| Indicator | Estimated Value |
|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 3.5% – 4.0% |
| Average Inflation | 4.2% – 4.8% |
| Public Debt | 40% – 43% of GDP |
| Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) | ≈ US$1 billion |
| Remittances | 25% – 30% of GDP |
Source: Central Bank of Honduras, IMF, and One West Realty estimates.
Economic Vision of the Candidates
Rixi Moncada: The State as the Engine of Growth
Moncada proposes a progressive tax reform, expanded social spending, and greater state control in key sectors such as energy and transportation.
Short-Term Impact:
Increased domestic consumption and public employment, but potential fiscal pressure if revenue collection does not improve.Salvador Nasralla: Investment, Efficiency, and Transparency
Nasralla’s platform focuses on institutional modernization, deregulation, and fostering investor confidence through public–private partnerships (PPP).
Short-Term Impact:
Stronger business confidence, increased foreign capital flow, and growth in formal employment.Economic Projections (2026–2028)
| Indicator | Moncada Scenario | Nasralla Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 3.6% – 4.4% | 3.9% – 5.0% |
| Inflation | 4.8% – 5.6% | 4.0% – 4.8% |
| Fiscal Deficit | –3.5% of GDP | –2.5% of GDP |
| Debt-to-GDP Ratio | 42% – 46% | 39% – 42% |
| Foreign Direct Investment | 0% to –10% | +5% to +15% |
Investor Reactions and Market Outlook
Pre-Election Period
Uncertainty dominates as foreign investors await clear signals on fiscal policy, concessions, and economic direction before committing new capital.
If Rixi Moncada Wins
Investors will look for stability and fiscal transparency. Key sectors like public infrastructure and energy could see renewed state participation.
If Salvador Nasralla Wins
Markets are likely to react positively, with a potential 5–15% rise in FDI within the first year due to increased confidence in institutional transparency and fiscal stability.
Infrastructure and Investment Projects
Ongoing and Advanced Projects
- Atlantic Coastal Highway: US$320 million, linking Omoa to Trujillo (45% completed).
- Southern Logistics Corridor: PPP of US$250 million funded by CABEI, awaiting second-phase approval.
- Western Regional Hospital: US$90 million co-financed by CABEI; delayed due to budget reallocations.
Social and Community Initiatives
Community-driven programs in rural infrastructure, education, and health are expected to continue under both administrations, though with differing implementation models.
Updated Map of Investment Projects (2025–2026)
Source: BCIE, SEFIN, COHEP, and multilateral reports 2025.