Election Night Guide: The Early Races That Will Show Whether a Democratic Wave Is Forming

If Democrats are headed for a wave in Tuesday’s midterm elections, the first evidence will come from the East Coast, where polls close earliest, according to an election-night guide by CNN senior political analyst Ronald Brownstein.

Virginia: the first test at 7 p.m. ET

Brownstein identifies three Virginia House races as early signals, each a step up in difficulty for Democrats:

• Virginia’s 2nd District: Former Rep. Elaine Luria (D) is seeking a rematch against Rep. Jen Kiggans (R), who defeated her in 2022. Trump carried the district by less than a point in 2024. A Luria win would point to a solid night for Democrats; a loss would be an early warning sign.
• Virginia’s 1st District: Rep. Rob Wittman (R) faces Shannon Taylor (D) in a district Trump won by about five points. A Democratic win would suggest a larger wave.
• Virginia’s 5th District: Former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) is challenging first-term Rep. John McGuire (R) in a seat Trump carried by 12 points. A Perriello victory would signal Democrats could exceed the gains of their 2018 wave.

Later in the evening

As polls close across the country, the analysis points to other markers, including Pennsylvania’s 1st District, held by Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick; New York’s 17th District, held by Republican Rep. Mike Lawler; and Senate races in North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Texas and Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers for an open seat.

The case for caution

The guide also lays out reasons a Democratic wave could fall short. Republicans hold a large spending advantage in several states, Republican voters outnumber Democrats in many contested districts, several states have redrawn their congressional maps, and pollsters have underestimated late Republican turnout surges before. Democrats remain most uneasy about their chances of winning control of the Senate.

What this means for voters and markets

Because results from the earliest-closing states arrive first, a few Virginia House races may set the tone for election-night coverage, and for financial markets weighing what a change in congressional control could mean for spending, taxes and housing policy. Final results in close races, especially in Western states where polls close later, may take days.

Source: CNN