Sheinbaum and Trump Agree on ‘Positive Relationship’ Despite Tariff Threats

On Thursday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and President-elect Donald Trump spoke by phone, agreeing to maintain a “positive relationship” between their countries despite Trump’s threat of a 25% tariff on Mexican exports if the flow of migrants and fentanyl to the U.S. was not reduced.

Sheinbaum and Trump provided differing accounts of the call on Wednesday. Trump claimed on Truth Social that Sheinbaum had agreed to “halt migration through Mexico,” which he interpreted as effectively closing the southern border. He later suggested this measure would be implemented immediately.

In response, Sheinbaum clarified on Twitter that “Mexico’s stance is not to close borders but to build bridges,” underlining her government’s commitment to continued engagement rather than drastic border policies.

Contrasting Accounts of the Call

The phone call highlighted ongoing confusion in U.S.-Mexico relations as Trump prepares to take office. Sheinbaum confirmed that her government would persist with policies from the Biden administration, which have drastically reduced migrant flows, with border apprehensions dropping by about 75% since December.

While Trump described the conversation as “wonderful,” Sheinbaum affirmed, “We agreed there will be a good relationship.” However, it remained unclear whether the tariff threat had been rescinded, as Sheinbaum noted that the issue was not discussed during their call.

Political Maneuvering and Mexico’s Response

Gabriel Guerra, a former Mexican diplomat, suggested that Trump’s tariff talk may have been more about securing a political win than actual policy implementation. “Trump can now claim that his statement on tariffs was incredibly powerful and got Mexico to comply swiftly,” Guerra commented. However, Sheinbaum’s remarks indicated that no significant policy shifts had occurred, and Mexico was merely fine-tuning existing practices.

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The call also revealed Trump’s limited understanding of Mexico’s domestic issues. Sheinbaum explained that Trump had asked about fentanyl use in Mexico, which is relatively low, and reassured him about the situation with a migrant caravan forming in southern Mexico, which she insisted would not reach the U.S. border.

The Impact of Tariffs on Both Nations

Mexico, which sends 80% of its exports to the U.S., is heavily reliant on cross-border trade. Economists warn that Trump’s tariff proposal could potentially push Mexico into a recession. At the same time, the U.S. also depends on Mexican production in sectors such as automotive and agriculture. Tariffs would raise costs for American consumers and hurt U.S. companies dependent on Mexican supplies. Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard warned that the tariffs could result in 400,000 job losses in the U.S.

Concerns Over Military Action and Fentanyl

Trump suggested military intervention to curb fentanyl flow from Mexico, a proposal likely to provoke backlash due to historical tensions. U.S. military actions in Mexico have caused resentment, fueling opposition to such an intervention proposal. Sheinbaum reassured Trump, stating fentanyl use in Mexico was not widespread, assuring the situation remained under control. She also highlighted the “Fentanyl Kills” campaign, aimed at educating Mexicans about the drug’s dangers.

In response, Trump announced plans to launch a large-scale U.S. advertising campaign to raise awareness about fentanyl’s dangers. Mexico does not face the same opioid crisis as the U.S., but it faces rising methamphetamine use. Drug violence in Mexico continues to escalate, exacerbating the nation’s drug-related challenges. The advertising campaign aims to educate U.S. citizens on fentanyl’s deadly impact. Meanwhile, Mexico struggles with combating the growing methamphetamine crisis and related violence.

Security Cooperation and Migration Control

Despite differences, both leaders discussed expanding security cooperation. Details were not disclosed, but Sheinbaum’s anti-crime strategies received praise. These strategies include intelligence-sharing and military-police collaboration, favored by security experts. On migration, Mexico has created a robust system for halting U.S.-bound migrants and returning them, though human rights groups criticize deportation treatment.

A Strong Start, But Challenges Ahead

Sheinbaum has built a cordial rapport with Trump, but significant challenges remain. Guerra warned, “Never forget, you’re dealing with Trump.” He emphasized, “This will never be over, not for four years.” Despite the challenges, Guerra noted, “It’s not a bad start.” Sheinbaum must navigate the complexities of dealing with Trump over the coming years.

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